Signs of Winter

Signs of a colder pattern are beginning to show up! Before that, tomorrow will be a very mild day, w lots of sunshine and highs in the low 50s. The change arrives Wednesday. During the day, after a high near 50, a strong cold front will move through, bringing a sharp drop in temperatures. This map from the NWS in Des Moines shows just how strong this front is.

Then, with the cold air in place, attention turns to a storm system forecasted to develop in the southwest and move out across the central plains. There is a lot of uncertainty with this storm system, but it could bring us a variety of precipitation. Right now, the models are favoring more precip in the form of snow, but this could very well change by tomorrow. The map at right shows how the storm could possibly impact us this weekend.


In the long range, more cold air is poised to plunge down from Canada for next week. Temperatures across the north pole and in Canada have dropped well below zero in the last week, and with a cross polar flow setting up later this week, this cold air could spill down into the plains for the first week of December.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Today was very chilly, with highs only in the upper 20s. Clouds developed this morning and hung around all day, keeping temperatures from climbing much. The clouds should move out this evening and allow temperatures to plummet. With light winds and clear skys, temperatures will fall into the teens. Lows could get close to 10 above in some areas tonight. Most places should see lows between 12 and 15 degrees. Beginning a slow moderations tomorrow, highs will be able to get out of the 20s, into the upper 30s, close to 40 with full sunshine. No surprise clouds tomorrow! Then we will watch a small system for early Saturday. We could see a few flurries or light snow. At this time, no accumulations is expected.

Then, attention turns to next week. A large storm system if forecast to move into the central plains. Right now it is too early to say whether it will be rain or snow, but the trends have been for there to be a storm system next week. Along with that, some arctic air should begin to dislodge and move our way from Canada.

Its Snowing!

Yes, it is finally snowing here in Lenexa. It has started to stick to elevated surfaces, such as decks and tables, and the grass. This band appears to have developed right over the city, and is moving on now. There is a band of snow to the west of Topeka that is moving to the east. It will be interesting to see if it makes it all the way here to the city. For now, here are some pictures of our first burst of snow.

Pockets of rain

Small pockets of rain are developing around the metro. Hoepfully this is a good sign of things to come! There still looks to be a good chance of snow mixing in with the rain early tomorrow afternoon. Accumulations look light, probably a dusting at the most in the city. Points to the north could see up to an inch in localized areas. Below is my snow forecast, and below that is the current radar. Click each to enlarge.

Snow?

Contrary to my last post, this storm has not vanished!! In fact, it is making its presence know right now. As of this writing, temperatures have fallen over 30° since this afternoon! This is very exciting after the long stretch (24 days) of very boring, dry weather. While snow amounts are still up in the air, one thing is certain, cold air is on the way! In order for the KC area to get much snow, the vort max rotating around the storm system would have to pass just south of the city, and it would have to maintain its strength. Stay tuned for more updates soon, as this storm approaches and the storm track becomes more evident.

Storm vanishes

Before I get to that, we have a great weekend shaping up for us. Tomorrow will be another nice day, sunny with highs in the 60s. A weak front moves through on Sunday, toning down temperatures a little, into the 50s, and then its back to warmer weather on Monday. Upper 60s, maybe even 70s are possible. Enjoy this weekend, because it may be some of the last warm weather for a while.

Then the changes start to move in. Cold air building up in Canada will begin to surge to the south. The cold air will move in in time for Thanksgiving, bring highs well below normal. I still don't have much confidence in whether or not there will be a storm. Just yesterday the GFS had a major storm almost on top of the metro. Then today, it vanished completely. The latest model has a very strong cold front coming through, dry. You can see the front on the map below. This could mean highs in the 30's possible by late next week. Be sure to check back soon and see if the models have changed their tune about a storm next week.

Dry Streak Continues

Well, today's rain chance was pretty much a dud. A few places to the south and east of Kansas City had some rain, but the majority of the area remained dry. As the weak front moved across the city, the majority of the lift had already moved away from the area, into central and southern Missouri, where more widespread showers and thunderstorms developed. Temperatures this evening have fallen into the lower 50s after highs early this morning in the lower 60s. With winds out of the north, temperatures will continue to fall overnight into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Tomorrow will be another nice fall day with highs in the mid 60s. Another cool shot will push in Wednesday night into Thursday dropping highs into the upper 40s or lower 50s.


There still is no significant chance of rain in the forecast for some time. The models continue to hint at the possibility of a storm late next week. It is still a long way off at the moment, but it is worth watching. Here's a look at what the 18Z GFS is saying right now. It is still well over a week so this will likely change drastically.


David

Strong Cold Front

Here goes my first real blog! They will get better as I get used to blogging again. :)

The start of the work week will will be highlighted by a very strong cold front. The front will pass thorough during the morning hours, so the high tomorrow will likely be before noon, and then falling temperatures. In fact, temps may fall into the 40s by the afternoon. This front will bring a freeze to everyone who hasn't had one yet. It will be the first hard freeze for most areas in the KC metro area and south. Lows Monday night are projected to reach into the middle to lower 20s. Tuesday, highs won't rebound far, only into the middle 40s and lows in the 20s again. Then slight moderation for the rest of the week as the flow across the country remains zonal.

Get out and enjoy the fall foliage! It seems to be at its peak in the area right now. I will try to put up some pictures from around the area tomorrow.
Have a great Monday!
David

First Blog!

Welcome to my new blog! Finally, after several months of not blogging, I have a new place to put my weather thoughts and forecasts. I will be posting my expanded forecasts here, meaning more than the graphics that are on my web page. I will do my best this winter to forecast snow totals, as I did last year in my previous blog. Later this month, I will be putting up my thoughts on this upcoming winter. I welcome anyone here to discuss the weather, not only here in Kansas City, but across the country.

Now, a little about me. I have been fascinated with weather ever since I was five, when I saw a tornado form not far from my house. I love watching storms. I would really like to be able to go on a chase, but I haven't yet. However, winter is my favorite season. I love being able to go out during a snow storm and feel the snow falling on your skin. I can't wait for our first snow fall this season.

Once again, welcome to my new blog!
David

P.S. Here is a link to my old blog for previous posts: http://community.myfoxkc.com/blogs/wxtracker

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